Tragedy at Covenant High School, Nashville. Preliminary assessments and conclusions.

I would like to begin by expressing my condolences to the families and friends of the victims and wishing a speedy recovery to the victims of this tragedy.

The mass murder at a school in Nashville, was an (unfortunately predictable) continuation of a series of similar crimes committed in schools and other educational institutions, all over the world.

I should add that on the same day - March 27, 2023 - there was another attack on a school, this one in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, where 6 people were also hurt, one dead and 5 others wounded. A 13-year-old student of this school is suspected of committing the crime and the perpetrator used a knife as a weapon.

I can only use information that has been published in the media and publicly available law enforcement reports to analyze the situation. As I have repeatedly said, I do not assess the motives and personality traits of the offender, I have an applied task, so I analyze only their actions, in connection with the events.

These assessments are preliminary, I will definitely continue to collect and analyze materials on this crime, after which I will do a more detailed review. If anyone can help me in collecting information, I would be very grateful for any information, I will indicate the list of questions at the end of the article.

Based on the available data, I would pay special attention to the important points that should be considered in the criminological assessment of this event:

1. According to a statement by Nashville Police Chief John Drake, published in «The Tennessean», the school was not the perpetrator's original target. According to Drake, Hale had planned to attack another location, but it proved too well protected, so the perpetrator chose a less secure site to attack: the school.

Based on the chronology of events reported in the media and surveillance footage, the gunman drove to the school in his car, parked it, got out of the car, then he walked, defiantly, holding his weapon in plain sight, towards the entrance to the school building, clearly not hiding his intentions.

3. According to the CCTV footage, the perpetrator entered the school premises unimpeded. Two external doors were closed, perhaps automatic locks were used, but this did not stop the intruder, but only delayed him for a few seconds, while the doors of the other rooms inside the building were open. The footage clearly shows the perpetrator first breaking the locks and glass of the entrance doors with several shots, and then walking around the interior of the building unobstructed, opening unlocked doors.

4. Police began storming the school 10 minutes after receiving the report of the attack. Judging by the footage from the body cameras they had no information about the exact location of the shooter inside the building, the video footage clearly shows that the officers first search the rooms on the first floor and only after the shots are fired, guided by their sound, move to the second floor and eliminate the criminal.

Given the above, a few tentative conclusions can be drawn:

The school in question (including in the opinion of the attacker himself) was an easy target for the attack, and this is also confirmed by the chronology of events.

The open surrounding area and uncontrolled access roads. The outside perimeter of the school did not create any obstacles for the perpetrator, and there were no surveillance or access control systems. This allowed the gunman to drive as close as possible to the entrance of the building without hindrance, thereby significantly reducing both his movement time and the likelihood of being detected before entering the building.

Lack of physical security, as well as technical means of security and access control to the building. Another example, the use of entrance doors with large glass screens, once again (there were many such cases) proved their complete uselessness as a means of protection. Such doors are not only unable to stop the criminal, but even seriously slow down his speed. In order to break them not even a gun is needed, any available tools and improvised means are quite suitable. In this case, the criminal used a semi-automatic rifle with a rifled barrel, the shots from which simply broke the glass. However, if he had used, for example, a large caliber shotgun or an explosive device, in which case the shards of glass would have turned into additional projectiles if shot or detonated. In this case, the entrance group, could not perform its main tasks, namely: blocking the path of the criminal, creating a temporary obstacle, reducing the energy of the bullet in shots, and the striking elements in the explosion. In addition, I would say that in the event of a mass evacuation, such door groups create additional obstacles for the evacuees, and if there is panic during the evacuation, they also cause numerous injuries. The recording clearly shows that only the glass inserts were destroyed by the shots, and that the doors themselves were deformed but did not open. When a door, especially a double-leaf door (that is exactly what the Covenant school had) is damaged, the locking mechanism is in most cases deformed, after which it is not always possible to open it, even using the regular key. Therefore, for one person such a door is not an obstacle, but for a panic-ridden crowd, especially children, it can become a fatal obstacle. Nowadays in attacks on educational institutions criminals use not only cold or firearms, but also explosives, as well as incendiary devices and even chemical poisons. If such lethal devices had been used in this case, the number of victims would have been significantly higher.

At the same time all the doors inside the school premises, on the contrary, were open, and judging by the video footage the criminal easily moves around inside the building, gets into classrooms and other interior rooms, moves through the corridors between the buildings, which are also equipped with doors, some of which do not have glass inserts. If these doors were blocked, it would force the attacker to open every door, and thus waste time and ammunition. This would seriously slow him down, thereby giving the potential victims time and opportunity to leave the building using safe routes, or to find and equip shelter inside the building.

In addition, another circumstance that should not be neglected is the type of perpetrator. It is important to understand that the typical school shooter is not a cold-blooded and calculating professional with extensive experience. On the contrary, he is an emotional, unstable amateur, for whom this is his first such crime, so he acts within the scenario he has composed himself, and if something does not go according to plan, he may panic, get scared and run away, abandoning his intentions.

Any security system must fulfill the main function - to create the maximum number of obstacles in the way of the criminal. In this case, I can see that it did not happen, the criminal arrived and entered the building without any obstacles, and moved around without meeting any resistance.  

Now, about the response. After receiving information about the attack, the police quickly arrived on the scene and 10 minutes later the officers entered the building, and after another 4 minutes the attacker was eliminated.

I would like to acknowledge the very competent and well-coordinated work of the Nashville police officers, who acted very quickly and professionally in a situation like this. The people of Nashville should be proud of their officers. 

However, judging by the on-camera video of one of the officers, they had little concrete information when they arrived on the scene. It was all limited to what they got from the 911 call. Already inside the school building, they were guided by the sound of gunshots, which the perpetrator himself had used to mark his location. Had he not done so, there is no telling how much time would have been spent searching for him and how many more victims there might have been.

To give a more accurate understanding of the time factor, here is an example: On September 26, 2022, School No. 88 in Izhevsk, Russia, was attacked by a criminal armed with two handguns. The police arrived already in 5 minutes, during this time the criminal managed to kill 17 people and wound 23, the total of 40 victims in 5 minutes, 8 people per minute - that's the price of time.

The overall conclusion is that Covenant School in Nashville was doomed to be attacked, in terms of security, its level of security, at the time of the attack was practically zero.

Is it possible to make schools, other educational institutions and places with mass attendance of children safe without turning them into prisons?

Yes it is possible. I have indicated the main list of practical measures I propose in the second part of my research «Ensuring the Safety of Schools, Other Educational Organizations and Public Places for Children from Threats of Criminal and Terrorist Nature». At the moment I am working on a large-scale update of this study and the development of amendments and additions to the proposed comprehensive security system, which will include additional elements of protection, developed on the basis of analysis and evaluation of experience and best practices in this matter, law enforcement agencies of different countries.

Note: as I said in the beginning of this article, when analyzing the tragedy at Covenant School, Nashville, I used only those materials that were published in the media, and there was very little data that interested me, not many, important details.

If there are those among my subscribers and readers who have more information and could answer a few questions, it would help me greatly in my work to make people's lives, and especially children's lives, safer.

The questions I am interested in are:

1. a general diagram of the school grounds.

The diagram showing the perpetrator's vehicle route through the school grounds, from the point of entry to the parking lot.

3. The perpetrator's route from the vehicle to the entrance of the school building (if possible with distance).

4. Which entrance to the building was used by the offender.

5. A diagram of the location of exterior video surveillance cameras on the grounds surrounding the school building (preferably with a viewing sector).

6. A floor plan of the school building, showing the perpetrator's route of travel, from the entrance, to the point of destruction.

7. Where the window outside of which the perpetrator was standing at the time of his elimination.

8. All of the victims killed by the perpetrator, were they in the same room or in different rooms at the time of the killing, if different, in what order did he kill them?

9. What else did the perpetrator have with him, including clothing, weapons, and ammunition.

10. What was found in his vehicle?

11. Who was the first person to call the police and what did he report?

Thank you in advance, I will be happy for any help.

 

I invite everyone who is interested in this topic, who sincerely wants to make the world around us safer, especially for children, to work on the project. 

Author Roman Grishin

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