Monday, April 14, 2025

New edition of the handbook. Why is statistics important?

 


Dear readers and colleagues, I am pleased to inform you that the fourth, supplemented edition of the Handbook of Crimes and Terrorist Acts in Schools and Other Educational Institutions has been completed, albeit with a slight delay (originally planned for April 11). The file has already been posted on the website and is available for download. The new edition corrects some errors and inaccuracies in previous editions and adds new information sent to me by colleagues from the Republic of Kazakhstan.

When I first started doing research on the security of schools and other educational institutions, the first problem I encountered was the lack of statistical data on crimes of this category collected and systematized in one source. I had to spend a great deal of time and effort to collect information from dozens of different sources and recheck it, because the completeness, reliability and objectivity of the published information often raised reasonable doubts. It became clear that there was a need for a unified information and reference resource containing information on crimes of this category and at least a brief (minimum) set of factual data on their details and circumstances. Without this information, it is simply impossible to see an objective picture of what is happening and assess the real scale of this threat, as well as to conduct a qualitative analysis of data, comparative, cross-checking, to assess the development of events in dynamics. Without the results of such analysis it is extremely difficult to explain the criminological processes taking place, and most importantly, to identify and identify the factors that affect them, which in turn makes it very difficult to predict the likely development of events.

When there is no understanding of the vector and features of threat development, it is impossible to develop effective countermeasures. This can be clearly seen now, when after another mass murder or terrorist attack in an educational institution, various experts, political scientists, law enforcement officials, educators and journalists, discussing the tragedy, ask the question: «Why did the measures developed and implemented as part of the security strategy to prevent and suppress threats not work?». The answer is simple: they were developed on the basis of incomplete data, and in many cases the data was not only incomplete, but also unreliable.

I often come across statistics in media publications that are very far from reality. For example, when commenting on another mass murder at a school or university, the author supports the article with figures of general statistics of incidents at educational institutions, despite the fact that most of these incidents are neither mass murders nor terrorism. For the most part, these are crimes of general criminal orientation, committed on the basis of personal animosity between specific people, or related to material motives (robbery, robbery, extortion), committed with hooligan motives or even unintentionally.

Therefore, it is crucial not only to know the statistical numbers, but also to understand the meaning behind them. Proper sorting of data is equally important. All collected cases should be cross-analyzed, comparing information from different sources, with preference given to police press releases, reports and court records because these contain more facts than speculation. All collected incidents should be divided into groups and subgroups according to various criminological characteristics. Such a division will make it possible to clearly see the nature of the development of the situation in a certain time period, both in comparison and in dynamics.

On the basis of qualitatively collected and systematized statistical data, it is possible to create fairly accurate criminological models and forecasts, and most importantly, thanks to these models and forecasts, it is possible to develop truly effective measures for preventing and combating these threats. This is the main goal and primary objective of applied criminology: to understand the nature of the threat, assess the prospects for its development, identify vulnerabilities, develop a strategy to counter the threat and eliminate it. This requires reliable raw data, validated and systematized, collected in a single source.

In the fall of 2023, I set about creating it. As a form of data presentation, I chose a format similar to a police incident report, in the form of a summary of the circumstances of the event containing such information as: date, time, place, manner, subject, object, subject, victims, consequences, outcome, and other reliably established facts.

In February 2024, the first edition was published on the website of the Public Order and Safety Project, which included statistical data for 24 years (from 2000 to 2023 inclusive). Then I received a lot of feedback, recommendations, additions and edits from colleagues around the world, already 2 months later, in April 2024, the second edition was published, which contained more than 100 additions and edits. During 2024, taking into account the requests from readers and colleagues, the information was updated and supplemented, the third edition, published in January 2025, contained updated information for 25 years. Today, the fourth edition has been published, which contains additional information and edits. As new data becomes available, work will begin on the fifth edition, which I plan to publish by the end of 2025. I would welcome any help in working on the new edition, and you can find out how to do this in the final part of the guide, in the section «Prospects for new editions».

My goal is to make a useful, reliable, informative, user-friendly and, most importantly, publicly available reference and analytical tool for researchers and specialists in ensuring the safety of schools and other educational institutions from threats of various types and nature.

Once again, I would like to thank all those who assisted me in collecting new information, clarifying and correcting previously published data, creating and editing sections, and other work on the handbook.

With respect.

Author and Editor-in-Chief of the project - Roman Grishin.

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