Announcement: Ensuring Comprehensive Safety in Schools and Other Educational Institutions: From Problem Analysis to Practical Solutions.

 

Note: it should be borne in mind that the author lives and works in Russia, so in this article, he considers the situation on the example of his country. Measures to ensure the safety of schools, other educational institutions and places with a mass stay of children that he proposes are developed by him for use in Russia, taking into account the existing law enforcement system and the situation there.

I am pleased to announce that I have finally completed the main part of my work on the article «Ensuring Comprehensive Safety in Schools, Other Educational Institutions, and Facilities and Locations Frequented by Large Numbers of Children Against Threats of a Criminal, Terrorist, and Other Nature».

All that remains are purely technical details: combining the separate sections into a single whole, making corrections, formatting it, and preparing it for publication on the portal’s main website. There is no exact date yet, but tentatively - late May to early June of this year.

This article is of a practical nature. I am not interested in discussing the problem or stirring up the atmosphere around it—crime statistics in schools, kindergartens, colleges, and universities do that much better. I am also not interested in the motives of criminals. I do not believe, nor do I even entertain the thought, that the mass murder of innocent people could have any justification whatsoever.

My interest lies in finding answers to other questions: can this be stopped? And if so, how exactly can it be done?

I began searching for answers to these questions back in 2018, when I was working on my first article about safety in schools and other educational institutions. I started that work almost immediately after the tragedy at the Kerch Polytechnic College, where 20 people were killed and another 67 were injured.

At the time, as I studied the timeline of that tragedy, I tried to understand: why was it so easy for the perpetrator to commit such a monstrous crime?

Here’s what I saw. A man armed with a gun, a large amount of ammunition, and homemade explosive devices leaves his home, walks to a public transportation stop, gets on a bus, rides to the right stop, walks to the college building, goes inside, finds an open, isolated room, prepares his weapon, arranges the ammunition for quick reloading, and sets the timers on the bombs. Then he goes out, heads to the emergency exit, tries to block it, walks toward the cafeteria, sets up an explosive device, goes back, grabs his weapon, and starts killing.

An explosion, panic. The killer moves calmly and, most importantly, unhindered through the college hallways, shooting at anyone who crosses his path or comes into view. He throws homemade grenades. Then he goes to the library, where he commits suicide.

It was all over before the first police car even arrived on the scene. No one stopped the criminal. No one stopped him. He killed himself when he considered his bloody mission accomplished. From start to finish, he had the situation completely under control.

 

It would be one thing if this were the first tragedy of its kind in Russia. But before this, there were Beslan, Moscow, Ivanteevka, Perm, Ulan-Ude, Shadrinsk, Sterlitamak, and Barabinsk. Wasn’t that enough to realize that the threat is real, and that a tragedy on the scale of the Kerch College attack is only a matter of time?

However, even this crime did not serve as a catalyst for recognizing the level of the threat and revising the entire security system. As always, everything was limited to talk and formal measures that had no real impact on the situation. Next came Kazan, Perm, Izhevsk, Bryansk—and these are only the largest crimes in terms of the number of victims. There were others, and quite a few of them.

The situation in other countries also clearly shows that there is no basis for optimistic forecasts. Statistics (link) clearly demonstrate a trend toward an increase in the number of similar crimes worldwide. The year 2025 set a kind of anti-record for their number. However, the first five months of 2026 clearly indicate that this record will be broken in the very near future.

All of this clearly demonstrates the complete vulnerability of schools and other educational institutions to criminals and terrorists. Every time there is another attack, meetings and discussions begin, task forces and commissions convene, plans and decisions are formulated, and high-profile statements are made to the media. However, very little time passes before new attacks occur and new victims emerge.

At the same time, even the simplest analysis of the chronology of these events shows that in most cases, the criminals exploited the same vulnerabilities that have long been known to everyone.

I was unable to get started right away. Difficulties arose, forcing me to postpone the work for nearly two years.

In the first area of research (the security situation at educational institutions in Russia and around the world), I encountered a lack of statistical data on crimes in this category that had been collected and systematized in a single source. I had to spend a tremendous amount of time and effort gathering information from dozens of different sources and cross-checking it.

Without these statistics, it is impossible to:

- gain an objective picture of what is happening;

- conduct a thorough (comparative and cross-sectional) analysis of the data;

- track developments over time;

- assess the true scale of the threat;

- explain ongoing criminological processes and identify the factors influencing them;

- predict how events will unfold.

Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding regarding the direction and specific characteristics of the threat’s development, which makes it extremely difficult to devise effective countermeasures. We see the result now, when, following yet another mass shooting or terrorist attack at an educational institution, experts, political analysts, law enforcement officials, educators, and journalists ask themselves: «Why didn’t the measures developed and implemented as part of the security strategy work?»

The answer is simple: they were developed based on incomplete data. And in many cases, this data was not only incomplete but also unreliable.

I myself have often come across statistics in media reports that are far removed from reality. For example, when commenting on yet another mass shooting at a school or university, the author would back up the article with general statistics on incidents at educational institutions—even though most of these incidents were not even indirectly related to mass shootings or terrorism. For the most part, these are general criminal offenses: committed due to personal animosity, or for financial gain (robberies, muggings, extortion), often out of hooliganism or even unintentionally.

Therefore, it is extremely important not only to know the statistics, but also to understand what lies behind these numbers. Proper data categorization is equally important.

The principles I used during data collection:

All collected cases underwent cross-analysis and comparison of information from various sources.

Preference was given to police press releases, reports, and court transcripts—these contain more facts than speculation.

All incidents were divided into groups and subgroups based on various criminological characteristics. This classification allows us to clearly see the nature of the situation’s development over a specific time period, both in comparison and in terms of trends.

Based on high-quality, systematically organized statistical data, it is possible to create more accurate (than currently available) criminological models and forecasts. Most importantly, these models can be used to develop truly effective measures for preventing and combating threats.

This requires reliable source data—verified, organized, and compiled into a single repository. But such data did not exist.

It became clear that a unified information and reference resource was needed, containing information on crimes in this category and at least a brief (minimal) set of factual data about their perpetrators and circumstances. Realizing this, I set out to create it.

As a format for presenting the data, I chose a format similar to a police incident report: a brief summary of the circumstances containing such information as the date, time, place, method, object, perpetrator, victims, consequences, outcome, and other reliably established facts.

In February 2024, the first edition of the Handbook of Crimes and Terrorist Acts in Schools and Other Educational Institutions was published on the «Public Order and Safety» portal, containing statistical data spanning 24 years (from 2000 through 2023).

The information has since been updated and expanded. The fifth edition is now available for download, containing data spanning 26 years. One of the main objectives has been achieved: an informative, user-friendly, and, most importantly, publicly accessible reference and analytical tool has been created for researchers and specialists in school safety.

For me, the main outcome of working on the handbook was that I was finally able to see a fairly objective picture regarding the first area of research. And as it turned out, this picture is far from optimistic. I won’t delve too deeply into the details—you can review the statistics and analytics for yourselves. The most important thing is that the year and a half spent on this was not wasted.

While studying materials on crimes in educational institutions, I noticed that experts often use the term «safety level» in their assessments, adding various adjectives to it: high, low, satisfactory, unsatisfactory, adequate, minimal, and so on. This raised a question for me: what exactly do they mean by this concept, and how do they define it?

After reviewing the information available in open sources, I have concluded that there is currently no unified (or even widely used) system in our country for assessing the safety levels of educational institutions based on formal criteria. Most reports containing such assessments are based on the personal opinions of the experts who compiled them.

An analysis of international experience also revealed nothing concrete—the situation there appears to be similar.

This situation struck me as, to put it mildly, strange. It is clear that there is a need for such a tool. Although I am not a proponent of total standardization in safety matters, I consider this area an exception. Since there was no evaluation system that could objectively calculate the safety level of an educational facility based on formal criteria (with minimal human influence), and I needed such a tool for my work, I decided to create it myself.

The result is a table in which evaluations are based on 64 criteria covering:

- characteristics of the educational facility’s grounds and its location;

- characteristics of buildings and structures;

- the presence of physical security and its features;

- technical security measures and their capabilities;

- additional active and passive security measures.

Each item, if present and operational, is assigned a number of points, which are then totaled. A final score is calculated. In addition to the total score, there are factors that negatively impact the final score.

Once completed, the table clearly shows:

- the level of security at the educational institution;

- its capabilities;

and most importantly—obvious shortcomings and vulnerabilities in the security system.

Based on the resulting assessment, measures and costs can be planned to improve the facility’s security level. Using annual data on such assessments of one or more facilities, it is easy to conduct comparative and dynamic analyses, clearly assessing the situation in a specific school, city, region, or even country over a given time period. You can compare both overall assessments and individual indicators or sections.

The result is a convenient and, most importantly, objective tool for monitoring the situation, where even a one-point drop in the rating compared to the previous period immediately indicates that the situation is deteriorating and action must be taken.

Even while collecting data for the handbook and developing the assessment table, I increasingly came to the conclusion that the model of a comprehensive security system for educational institutions that I had previously developed and outlined in my first article was ineffective and unpromising.

Solving the problem would require a completely different approach.

I began work on this at the end of 2023. In May 2026, I finally managed to complete it (though I assume it is not yet final).

In my new development, I was guided by public demand, which is as follows: schools, other educational institutions (including preschools), as well as facilities where large numbers of children gather, must be reliably protected from criminal, terrorist, and other threats, but at the same time, they must not be turned into something resembling a prison or a military base.

Is this realistic? I believe it is.

What needs to be done to achieve this, why, and exactly how—I will address these questions in the main article.

The publication is scheduled for late May to early June of this year on the «Public Order and Safety» portal.

Author – Roman Grishin.

Tragedy at Apalachee High School in Winder, GA - need help gathering information.

At the beginning I would like to express my sincere condolences to the families and friends of those who died in this terrible crime, as well as wish a speedy recovery to all those who were injured and traumatized.

According to preliminary data published in the media: 4 people were killed in the attack on the school (2 teachers and 2 students), and more than 10 people were injured of varying degrees of severity. The attack was committed by 1 perpetrator, who used firearms to commit the crime. The suspect was detained alive at the scene of the crime.

There is a lot of contradictory information in the publications of news outlets and TV channels, and in the official statements of law enforcement agencies there are no details of the crime, which are extremely necessary in my work.

I will be very grateful if those who have information on this crime, share this information. On this tragedy is interested in the factual side of the incident, primarily the chronology of the event (what time the criminal came to the school, how he got into it, how long he was in the building, who called the police, how long she arrived, whether the suspect was detained on school grounds or managed to escape, etc.), eyewitness accounts, police reports, etc., simply put - not opinions, but facts. Also interested in any other corroborated data.

Thank you in advance for your help.

You can contact me in any convenient way, here are all my contacts

#tragedy #Apalachee #High #School #Winder #Georgia #shooting #murder #information #HighSchool #High_School

Handbook of Crimes and Terrorist Acts in Schools and Other Educational Institutions

 Hello dear colleagues.

As I have already mentioned in my previous posts, recently I have been working on the creation of a reference book containing information about crimes and incidents of criminal and terrorist nature committed in kindergartens, schools, colleges, universities and other educational institutions, as well as places with mass stay of children.

I am pleased to report that the first, test version of the handbook has been finalized, albeit with a slight deviation from the original deadline. The document has been finalized and is available for download on the website of the Public Order and Security project.

The handbook contains statistical and other data on crimes and incidents of criminal and terrorist nature committed in schools, other educational and child care institutions (including preschools) in the period from 2000 to 2023 (first edition) inclusive. In addition, the handbook contains the results of statistical analysis of the above data, both for separate time periods and in comparison, and also, based on the collected information, I have attempted to create a "statistical model" of a potential criminal.

I am sure that the information collected and systematized in this way will allow all specialists, whose activities are related to ensuring the safety and security of schools, other educational institutions and places with mass stay of children to see a more complete and detailed picture of the state and development of the criminogenic situation in this area. Existing and prospective threats, ways of preparation and commission of crimes, their nature and degree of public danger. In addition to the above, it should help, in addition to psychological and social profiles of potential criminals, to form statistical models and features of the profile of potential criminals, and this is a very important aspect in the development of a system of prevention of such crimes.

All the data collected and systematized in it, I obtained from available open sources. I admit that the list of crimes and incidents that I used for analysis does not include all incidents that occurred during this period. Therefore, I ask everyone who is interested in this topic and has information about crimes and incidents of criminal and terrorist nature, committed in kindergartens, schools, colleges, universities and other educational institutions, as well as places with mass presence of children, related to grave and especially grave crimes, committed with the use of weapons, objects used as weapons, explosive or incendiary devices, chemical or poisonous substances, as well as related to hostage-taking, to send it to me. 

Now I am moving to the second stage of work on the handbook, which is the correction of information, their clarification and addition. I will be very glad to receive any help in my work.

My goal is to make a convenient, informative, publicly accessible, reference and analytical tool for researchers and specialists in the security of schools and other educational institutions.

I look forward to your opinions, suggestions, and insights in the comments.

Download the handbook here: https://www.orderandsafety.org/article-school-safety-2.html

#school #kindergarten #university #college #analytics #crime #terrorism #handbook #statistics #analytics

The effectiveness of the use of technical means of safety and design features of the premises, in schools and other educational institutions

Between 2022 and 2023 more than 30 crimes* occurred in schools, other educational institutions and places with mass stay of children in different countries of the world, the victims of which were 236 people, 114 of whom died, most of the victims being children.

After each tragedy, especially those related to mass murders (there were 15 such cases), there were extensive discussions in the media, social networks, messengers and forums about why such terrible crimes occur and how to prevent them in the future.

The main topic of such discussions, in most cases, is to find out the reasons and motives that motivated the subject (or group) to commit this terrible crime. Although there is little practical benefit to be gained from such deliberations. Authoritative experts in personality analysis and forensic psychiatry have repeatedly proven that there is no single psychotype of a «school shooter», nor is there a single trigger that induces them to commit murder. According to these studies, the prevention of such crimes can be based only on the analysis of some behaviors-indicators of potential shooters, which with a certain degree of probability indicate their intentions, but it is still premature to talk about the effectiveness of such methods.  It should be taken into account, however, that the nature of threats is also changing, the main share of attacks on schools and other educational institutions are external attacks. If we analyze the period from 2010 to 2022 inclusive, out of 117 cases* qualifying as mass murder committed in schools or other children's organizations, only in 57 cases (48.7%) the offenders were pupils or employees of these institutions.

The case of March 27, 2023, at the Covenant School in Nashville, USA, is illustrative. A criminal armed with a firearm entered the school where he murdered six people and then was killed in a shoot-out with police. According to a statement made by the city's police chief, the school was not the perpetrator's original target. Based on the records found, the killer had planned to attack another location, but it was too well protected, so he chose a less secure site to attack - the school.

Schools, other educational institutions and places with large concentrations of children have long been high-risk targets, attractive to criminals and terrorists**. This means that a fundamentally new approach to their security is needed.  However, to date, there is no single format or template that can be used to build a system of safety and security for educational and other institutions for children. Studies on its development are being conducted, but most often it is done by independent researchers and just enthusiasts, representatives of scientific and analytical departments of law enforcement agencies try to stay away from this area. As a result of this attitude, the threat, which has existed on an international scale and has been increasing in activity for almost 30 years, continues to develop, covering more and more countries and using more and more deadly methods, meeting on its way virtually no counteraction.

Among those involved in the search for a solution, especially in recent years, is gaining popularity in such a direction as strengthening the buildings and premises of educational institutions, through the use of technical means of security and access control, as well as additional elements in the design of interior spaces. Information about various innovations in this direction periodically appear in the media, and in some schools, such technical security systems are already in place. In theory, these means of security and safety are very effective, but what about in practice?

So far, of several schools (for obvious reasons I will not name their names or locations) where such systems are used, no cases (including attempts) of mass murder or terrorist acts have been recorded, so it is not yet possible to evaluate the effectiveness of protective measures by real example. Therefore, I propose to analyze different variants of their use in theory and consider on hypothetical examples of attacks, with different scenarios.  

According to publications in the media and other information from open sources, I have identified several popular technical systems of security and access control, which the authors of such initiatives propose to use in educational institutions.

 

Automatically locking doors and windows made of particularly durable materials that can withstand shots and burglary attempts.

The authors of such initiatives claim that through the use of such technology, it is possible to quickly, at the touch of a button, deny a criminal access to a school building, or to block him inside a confined space, thereby depriving him of the possibility of further movement. There is a reference to the fact that such systems have long been successfully used in practice. It is true, they are used in prisons. However, prisons and schools are objects of fundamentally different functions, so the security systems in them are built on a different principle. The purpose of such systems in prisons is to prevent the inmate from leaving the territory, or during a riot, to deprive small groups of prisoners of the opportunity to unite with others. But a prison is a purpose-built, closed, secure facility, the security of which is ensured by a whole complex of interconnected systems and entire units of armed guards numbering several dozens of people. Automated security and access control systems are managed there by specially trained and experienced staff, from a specially equipped room (duty station) where all the surveillance and control systems are located.

Despite the fact that the school is an object with completely different characteristics and functionality, let us try to consider the hypothetical possibility of using such systems in it.

The question arises at once - how exactly or by whom will this locking system be activated and how is it controlled?

Variant 1: the system automatically locks the locks when the «Alarm» button is pushed, but in this case it does not save but on the contrary dooms to death. Let me explain by example: the signal was activated while the criminal in the hall or common corridor, he was noticed, pressed the alarm button, after which the system automatically blocked the doors of all rooms, it turns out that everyone else who at that moment was outside the premises - are the potential, and most importantly easily accessible victims, because in this case they have nowhere to hide, as all the doors to the premises are blocked.

Variant 2: the alarm has been activated when the offender has already entered the classroom, canteen, library or gymnasium, in this case those who were in the room with him at that moment have no chance to leave it, all possible exits are blocked, people will be trapped.

Option 3: The system locks the locks at the command of one of the school officials. In this case, the questions again arise:

1. how many such officials are there?

2. on what basis do they decide to activate the lock and how exactly do they do it?

If, according to the instructions, they activate the system upon hearing an alarm or grounds for activation, such as the sounds of gunshots, cries for help, etc. In this case, the situation will develop similarly to the above scenarios from options 1 and 2, with their negative consequences.

If the security protocol requires the officer to first personally verify the reality of the threat before activating the blocking system, then the question arises: how much time will it take to assess the situation and make a decision? It is worth considering that the decision is made by a person who is an employee of the field of education, who may have graduated from special courses, but he is not faced with the elimination of emergency situations on a daily basis, he has no relevant experience. Therefore, such factors as suddenness, fear, confusion, doubt, etc., can seriously affect his reaction, by the time the decision is made, it may be too late.

What delay means in such situations is clearly demonstrated by an attack on a school in the city of Izhevsk, Russia, September 26, 2022, when from the first shot to the arrival of the police only 5 minutes passed, during which time the offender managed to kill 18 people and wound 23 others.

It is also possible that the system of locking doors and windows is activated on command from the police station, with which there is a live video link. In this case, the decision would be made more deliberately and quickly, but again the question arises - Under what conditions would this measure be effective? I have considered many plausible scenarios and found only one, when the use of such a system could protect people in the case of mass murder in an educational institution.

In order to do that, the situation would go like this: the perpetrator was identified when he entered the building, all students, teachers and administrative staff are in classrooms and other offices equipped with bullet-proof doors, the hallway and corridors are empty. Provided that the attacker is armed only with firearms or edged weapons and his goal is mass murder. Only under such «sterile» conditions, this system can protect.

I have analyzed over a hundred actual cases of mass murders in educational institutions committed between 2010 and 2022 inclusive, out of 117 incidents, only three crimes had a similar scenario, that is less than 3% of the total.  

Now let's modify the above scenario a bit: the perpetrator, instead of using a firearm, or in addition to it, uses an incendiary device, the same Molotov cocktails, igniting them on the evacuation routes. A similar attack on a school was attempted in May 2019 in Volsk, Saratov region, Russia, a large-scale tragedy was avoided only because the incendiary mixture made by the perpetrator did not ignite. The attacker could also use highly toxic chemicals or poison gas. A similar case was recorded on November 12, 2019, in China, then a 23-year-old perpetrator, sprayed poisonous lye on the premises of a kindergarten, Caiyuan city, Yunnan province. Fifty-four people, including 51 children under the age of 7, received various degrees of poisoning.

In such scenarios, people trapped inside are at even greater risk. It is important to understand that the subjects of these crimes should not be underestimated, they are very rarely committed spontaneously, in most cases they are preceded by a long and careful preparation, the time and place of the attack are also not chosen by chance.

I will not dwell on this in detail, but the consequences of using such a system can be even more tragic if it is not an attack by a school shooter - a loner, but a terrorist act committed by an organized group, regardless of the purpose of their action, mass murder or hostage-taking.

 

Technical means of active safety.

I also found the idea of using such innovations for school security in media publications (one school in the U.S. has already installed this system). The authors suggest installing special smoke canisters in the corridors of schools, which spray thick smoke, making it difficult for an attacker to move.

The idea is certainly interesting, precisely in terms of its application as a protective measure in children's institutions. The fact is that similar systems have long been successfully used, but not in schools, but in prisons, to suppress escapes, as well as riots and mass fights.

If we consider the possible scenarios in which it could be used effectively, there is only one option. If the criminal is alone in a completely empty corridor, and an equally empty direction along his likely route of travel. Otherwise, the use of such devices can only do harm. Why?

Let me repeat at the beginning that we should not underestimate the subjects of these crimes, they prepare for their actions and take such features into account in their planning. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the offender himself will have a gas mask, but his victims will not have the means of respiratory protection. The spraying of smoke, if there are other people in the corridor in addition to the shooter, especially children, will cause panic and disorientation, not to mention what will happen if among them are children with panic attacks, epilepsy or asthma. In addition, the smoke will hide the «shooter» from the security cameras. And now put all the factors together, if the attacker has the means of respiratory and visual protection, the use of such a system, will simplify the task of the offender, allowing him to move freely and secretly on school grounds, while making it very difficult for the police to find him and neutralize him.

The use of active technical means of security in such a format does not comply with the main principle of any security system – «Do no harm». Therefore, using them in this form is not only ineffective, but also dangerous. However, with proper refinement, taking into account most possible scenarios and circumstances, the development of several effective and safe models of their use is quite possible. The direction is very promising, but requires serious study and a different approach to use.

 

 

Structural features of the premises in educational institutions.

According to media reports, in one of the schools, as a security measure, special curved corridors were built in which students running away from the shooter would be out of his sight at all times. In addition, special concrete barriers were erected to allow students to hide from bullets.

I agree that, to some extent, this may indeed make it a little more difficult for the «school shooter», provided that he acts alone, is armed with a cold or short-barreled firearm, has very poor shooting skills, and is limited in time. In this case, it is important that of all the possible options of attack, he chose the one in which the starting point is the corridor, where at that moment there will be his potential victims. This scenario, while unlikely, is possible.

To this I would add that all these artificial obstacles, will create the same difficulty for the police when they enter the building to neutralize the threat.

That said, once again, the biggest mistake the designers of such «security measures» make is underestimating the subjects they are designed to counter. Attacks on educational institutions are spontaneous very rarely, in most cases they are crimes that are preceded by a long and careful period of preparation, and in their plans, the attackers take into account the «special characteristics» of the object of the future crime.   

In addition, the scenarios of possible threats are obviously not taken into account, because it is not only mass murder, it is also terrorism, including hostage-taking. The bright example is the September 1, 2004 occupation of the school in Beslan, Russia, by terrorists, and there is no guarantee that such an incident might not happen again. By equipping schools with bulletproof doors and windows, curved corridors, and concrete shelter barriers, we not only make it easier for them, we make schools more attractive as potential targets for takeover. After all, for the terrorists to seize such a building and turn everyone inside into hostages would not be very difficult, but for the anti-terrorist squad members who have to storm it, all these fortifications would create serious additional obstacles, which with a high probability would lead to very serious consequences. Even if we consider a situation in which a lone man who has taken only one office and students as hostages acts as an intermediary. If negotiations stall, there is only one option left - the use of force to free the hostages and neutralize the criminal. The most important factor in such operations is time, the faster the group penetrates the room and the more points of entry, the greater the chance of success. Accordingly, when storming the premises with armored doors and windows, these chances are much lower.

Do not also forget that not a single technical system in the world, even the most sophisticated, is not immune to failure. It can simply not turn on at the right time, it can not do it in full, it can turn on or off spontaneously. Also, do not discount the fact that control of any such system (especially if it is remote) can be intercepted, in which case the device is designed to protect people, become a tool to kill them.       

To ensure the security of an educational institution or other place with a mass presence of children, does not mean that it is necessary to turn it into an object capable of withstanding an attack by superior enemy forces or a high-security prison for a long time. When developing measures for the technical reinforcement of public buildings, and especially of children, it is necessary to take into account all possible scenarios and threats, even those that at first glance seem unlikely or even fantastic.

 

* When evaluating statistical data, it should be taken into account that their reliability corresponds to the real situation only by 60 - 65%. The reasons for such deviations are as follows:

1. not all countries publish publicly available information on such cases, or they do, but in a distorted (most often understated) form;

2. in cases where a crime is prevented at the stage of preparation, it is not always possible to prove the direct intention of the suspect to commit a mass murder or an act of terrorism. That is why quite a few criminals avoid responsibility for their actual intent, getting away with formal punishment for offenses of minor gravity, such as illegal storage of weapons, insults, threats, storage and distribution of extremist materials;

3. in cases where a crime can be prevented at the initial stage, before especially grave consequences occur (for example, the offender inflicted only light wounds on one or two people, the weapon for some reason did not fire, the guards or the surrounding people managed to disarm and detain, etc.), also it is not always possible to prove the existence of a direct intent by the suspect to commit a mass murder or an act of terrorism. On the recommendations of defense attorneys, suspects testify that they did not plan to kill anyone, but only wanted to frighten them, or that it was a prank in general.

 Author - Roman Grishin

** Although some do not see the difference, I am still inclined to separate the two types of perpetrators by their motivation. For the School Shooter, mass murder is a way of self-expression; he is guided by goals that he alone understands and is only trying to convey his personal message to those around him. A terrorist commits a crime guided by the ideology of a particular terrorist movement (or organization), and pursues the goals espoused by this extremist ideology (or organization).

Note: terrorist acts in educational institutions, committed by lone terrorists, are still a rare phenomenon for most countries, but, unfortunately, only for the time being. Judging by current trends, international terrorist organizations and movements consider this method of committing their actions very promising.

Tragedy at Covenant High School, Nashville. Preliminary assessments and conclusions.

I would like to begin by expressing my condolences to the families and friends of the victims and wishing a speedy recovery to the victims of this tragedy.

The mass murder at a school in Nashville, was an (unfortunately predictable) continuation of a series of similar crimes committed in schools and other educational institutions, all over the world.

I should add that on the same day - March 27, 2023 - there was another attack on a school, this one in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, where 6 people were also hurt, one dead and 5 others wounded. A 13-year-old student of this school is suspected of committing the crime and the perpetrator used a knife as a weapon.

I can only use information that has been published in the media and publicly available law enforcement reports to analyze the situation. As I have repeatedly said, I do not assess the motives and personality traits of the offender, I have an applied task, so I analyze only their actions, in connection with the events.

These assessments are preliminary, I will definitely continue to collect and analyze materials on this crime, after which I will do a more detailed review. If anyone can help me in collecting information, I would be very grateful for any information, I will indicate the list of questions at the end of the article.

Based on the available data, I would pay special attention to the important points that should be considered in the criminological assessment of this event:

1. According to a statement by Nashville Police Chief John Drake, published in «The Tennessean», the school was not the perpetrator's original target. According to Drake, Hale had planned to attack another location, but it proved too well protected, so the perpetrator chose a less secure site to attack: the school.

Based on the chronology of events reported in the media and surveillance footage, the gunman drove to the school in his car, parked it, got out of the car, then he walked, defiantly, holding his weapon in plain sight, towards the entrance to the school building, clearly not hiding his intentions.

3. According to the CCTV footage, the perpetrator entered the school premises unimpeded. Two external doors were closed, perhaps automatic locks were used, but this did not stop the intruder, but only delayed him for a few seconds, while the doors of the other rooms inside the building were open. The footage clearly shows the perpetrator first breaking the locks and glass of the entrance doors with several shots, and then walking around the interior of the building unobstructed, opening unlocked doors.

4. Police began storming the school 10 minutes after receiving the report of the attack. Judging by the footage from the body cameras they had no information about the exact location of the shooter inside the building, the video footage clearly shows that the officers first search the rooms on the first floor and only after the shots are fired, guided by their sound, move to the second floor and eliminate the criminal.

Given the above, a few tentative conclusions can be drawn:

The school in question (including in the opinion of the attacker himself) was an easy target for the attack, and this is also confirmed by the chronology of events.

The open surrounding area and uncontrolled access roads. The outside perimeter of the school did not create any obstacles for the perpetrator, and there were no surveillance or access control systems. This allowed the gunman to drive as close as possible to the entrance of the building without hindrance, thereby significantly reducing both his movement time and the likelihood of being detected before entering the building.

Lack of physical security, as well as technical means of security and access control to the building. Another example, the use of entrance doors with large glass screens, once again (there were many such cases) proved their complete uselessness as a means of protection. Such doors are not only unable to stop the criminal, but even seriously slow down his speed. In order to break them not even a gun is needed, any available tools and improvised means are quite suitable. In this case, the criminal used a semi-automatic rifle with a rifled barrel, the shots from which simply broke the glass. However, if he had used, for example, a large caliber shotgun or an explosive device, in which case the shards of glass would have turned into additional projectiles if shot or detonated. In this case, the entrance group, could not perform its main tasks, namely: blocking the path of the criminal, creating a temporary obstacle, reducing the energy of the bullet in shots, and the striking elements in the explosion. In addition, I would say that in the event of a mass evacuation, such door groups create additional obstacles for the evacuees, and if there is panic during the evacuation, they also cause numerous injuries. The recording clearly shows that only the glass inserts were destroyed by the shots, and that the doors themselves were deformed but did not open. When a door, especially a double-leaf door (that is exactly what the Covenant school had) is damaged, the locking mechanism is in most cases deformed, after which it is not always possible to open it, even using the regular key. Therefore, for one person such a door is not an obstacle, but for a panic-ridden crowd, especially children, it can become a fatal obstacle. Nowadays in attacks on educational institutions criminals use not only cold or firearms, but also explosives, as well as incendiary devices and even chemical poisons. If such lethal devices had been used in this case, the number of victims would have been significantly higher.

At the same time all the doors inside the school premises, on the contrary, were open, and judging by the video footage the criminal easily moves around inside the building, gets into classrooms and other interior rooms, moves through the corridors between the buildings, which are also equipped with doors, some of which do not have glass inserts. If these doors were blocked, it would force the attacker to open every door, and thus waste time and ammunition. This would seriously slow him down, thereby giving the potential victims time and opportunity to leave the building using safe routes, or to find and equip shelter inside the building.

In addition, another circumstance that should not be neglected is the type of perpetrator. It is important to understand that the typical school shooter is not a cold-blooded and calculating professional with extensive experience. On the contrary, he is an emotional, unstable amateur, for whom this is his first such crime, so he acts within the scenario he has composed himself, and if something does not go according to plan, he may panic, get scared and run away, abandoning his intentions.

Any security system must fulfill the main function - to create the maximum number of obstacles in the way of the criminal. In this case, I can see that it did not happen, the criminal arrived and entered the building without any obstacles, and moved around without meeting any resistance.  

Now, about the response. After receiving information about the attack, the police quickly arrived on the scene and 10 minutes later the officers entered the building, and after another 4 minutes the attacker was eliminated.

I would like to acknowledge the very competent and well-coordinated work of the Nashville police officers, who acted very quickly and professionally in a situation like this. The people of Nashville should be proud of their officers. 

However, judging by the on-camera video of one of the officers, they had little concrete information when they arrived on the scene. It was all limited to what they got from the 911 call. Already inside the school building, they were guided by the sound of gunshots, which the perpetrator himself had used to mark his location. Had he not done so, there is no telling how much time would have been spent searching for him and how many more victims there might have been.

To give a more accurate understanding of the time factor, here is an example: On September 26, 2022, School No. 88 in Izhevsk, Russia, was attacked by a criminal armed with two handguns. The police arrived already in 5 minutes, during this time the criminal managed to kill 17 people and wound 23, the total of 40 victims in 5 minutes, 8 people per minute - that's the price of time.

The overall conclusion is that Covenant School in Nashville was doomed to be attacked, in terms of security, its level of security, at the time of the attack was practically zero.

Is it possible to make schools, other educational institutions and places with mass attendance of children safe without turning them into prisons?

Yes it is possible. I have indicated the main list of practical measures I propose in the second part of my research «Ensuring the Safety of Schools, Other Educational Organizations and Public Places for Children from Threats of Criminal and Terrorist Nature». At the moment I am working on a large-scale update of this study and the development of amendments and additions to the proposed comprehensive security system, which will include additional elements of protection, developed on the basis of analysis and evaluation of experience and best practices in this matter, law enforcement agencies of different countries.

Note: as I said in the beginning of this article, when analyzing the tragedy at Covenant School, Nashville, I used only those materials that were published in the media, and there was very little data that interested me, not many, important details.

If there are those among my subscribers and readers who have more information and could answer a few questions, it would help me greatly in my work to make people's lives, and especially children's lives, safer.

The questions I am interested in are:

1. a general diagram of the school grounds.

The diagram showing the perpetrator's vehicle route through the school grounds, from the point of entry to the parking lot.

3. The perpetrator's route from the vehicle to the entrance of the school building (if possible with distance).

4. Which entrance to the building was used by the offender.

5. A diagram of the location of exterior video surveillance cameras on the grounds surrounding the school building (preferably with a viewing sector).

6. A floor plan of the school building, showing the perpetrator's route of travel, from the entrance, to the point of destruction.

7. Where the window outside of which the perpetrator was standing at the time of his elimination.

8. All of the victims killed by the perpetrator, were they in the same room or in different rooms at the time of the killing, if different, in what order did he kill them?

9. What else did the perpetrator have with him, including clothing, weapons, and ammunition.

10. What was found in his vehicle?

11. Who was the first person to call the police and what did he report?

Thank you in advance, I will be happy for any help.

 

I invite everyone who is interested in this topic, who sincerely wants to make the world around us safer, especially for children, to work on the project. 

Author Roman Grishin

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