Safety in Schools and Other Educational Institutions: An Overview of the Current Global Situation, First Half of 2026.

 
The first half of 2026 has come to a close, so it’s time to take stock and draw some preliminary conclusions. The first conclusion is that my forecast, made based on the results of 2025 and published in an article, did not come true. At that time, I predicted that in 2026 there would be a 25–30% decrease in the number of crimes committed, based on key indicators. I reached this conclusion by comparing the sharp spike in crime rates in 2025 with a similar spike in 2014, after which the figures for the following several years were even slightly below average. Based on this comparison, I concluded that in 2014 and 2025, there was a sort of «release of accumulated excess pressure», followed by several years of relative «calm» and then another rise to a new record high. The forecast did not materialize.

The situation in the first half of 2026 became much more complicated, with growth across virtually all indicators.

 

Statistics for the first 6 months, a brief overview:

In total, 72 serious and particularly serious crimes were committed in schools and other educational institutions, which is 35.8% more than during the same period last year (hereinafter referred to as «s.p.l.y.») - 53.

There were 43 crimes involving mass murder and acts of terrorism; during the same period last year, there were 22 such crimes, representing an increase of nearly double, or 95.4%. Below are the specific figures for this category of crimes.

The proportion of crimes committed with firearms decreased slightly to 41.8% (s.p.l.y. - 45.5%), however, the proportion of crimes committed using chemical poisons rose significantly to 11.6% (s.p.l.y. - 4.5%), incendiary devices and mixtures to 9.3% (s.p.l.y. - 4.5%), and explosive devices 4.6% (s.p.l.y. - 0%). The proportion of attacks committed by groups rose slightly to 9.3% (s.p.l.y. - 9.1%), as did that of terrorist attacks 2.3%( s.p.l.y. - 0%).

The percentage of crimes in which vehicles were used as weapons decreased significantly to 0% (s.p.l.y. - 9.1%), and the percentage of crimes in which the perpetrators managed to flee the scene was halved to 18.6% (s.p.l.y. - 36.3%).

Total number of victims (under Section 2, «Crimes with characteristics of mass murders and terrorist acts2): 218 (s.p.l.y. - 143), of whom:

- 46 were killed (s.p.l.y. - 39);

- 172 were injured (s.p.l.y. - 104).

Despite the increase in these figures, the public danger coefficient for attacks in the first half of 2026 decreased to 3.06; in the same period of 2025, it was 4.1.

 

Geography of Crime:

There have been sharp, negative changes in two countries: Turkey and the Philippines.

In Turkey, the situation deteriorated sharply in the spring. The first attack took place on March 2 at a school in Istanbul; a month and a half later, two attacks occurred one day apart: on April 14 in Siverek and the following day in Kahramanmaraş, resulting in 38 victims—10 dead and 28 wounded. In terms of scale, these crimes exceeded the figures for the previous 25 years. Prior to this, mass killings at educational institutions in Turkey had occurred twice: 

- November 22, 2005, in Nusaybin: an attack on a school, 5 victims (1 killed, 4 injured);

- April 5, 2018, in Ankara: an attack on a university, 7 victims (4 killed, 3 injured).

 

In the Philippines, events in June sent shockwaves through the country, with three consecutive attacks occurring within one week:

- June 16, 2026, General Trias, Philippines;

- June 19, 2026, Cavite, Philippines (stabbing, 1 injured, male, 18 years old, student);

- June 22, 2026, Tacloban, Philippines;

Two of the incidents showed signs of mass killings. There were 16 victims, including 3 fatalities and 13 injured.

Prior to this, over the past 25 years, there had been only one similar incident in the Philippines, on October 22, 2010, in Zamboanga; however, that was a single external attack on an elementary school carried out by a perpetrator over 50 years old. In 2026, the picture is completely different: one attack was carried out by a group, two were internal (carried out by students at these schools), and one was of a mixed nature; the oldest of the attackers was 18 years old.

It is still difficult to say exactly what caused such drastic changes in the situation, specifically in these two countries, where, until 2026, such crimes were the exception rather than the rule. There are several theories, but none of them is backed by direct evidence; for now, everything remains at the level of speculation, and more definitive conclusions can be drawn at the end of the year.

As for positive developments, the situation in China shows a positive trend. I’m not sure exactly what this is due to, but for the first half of 2026, there is not a single mention of China in open sources in the context of serious and particularly serious crimes committed in educational institutions. This is unusual, as China typically ranks among the top three countries in terms of the number of such attacks. By comparison, last year saw four crimes in China that met the criteria for mass murders and terrorist acts, two of which occurred in the first half of the year.

Otherwise, no other significant changes were recorded on the world map during the first half of 2026. However, the overall trend is that the list of countries where such crimes are committed is growing every year. As of today, based on statistics for the past six months, the geographic distribution of attacks on educational facilities is as follows: the United States, Russia, Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, South Africa, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Thailand, India, the Netherlands, Finland, Uganda, and Lithuania.

I won’t make any predictions for the end of the year, but so far everything indicates that the all-time high set in 2025 will most likely be surpassed this year.

Over the next one and a half to two months, we can expect a lull, as most educational institutions around the world close for summer break. It’s still hard to say what will happen in the fall, when the school year begins. There is a high probability that an already difficult situation could become even more complicated due to the growing activity of online extremist communities and movements, which have shifted to more aggressive tactics and ideologies and have begun actively promoting ideas of misanthropy - but that is a topic for a separate discussion. 

Author – Roman Grishin.

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A new article titled “Ensuring Safety in Educational Institutions.”

 

 I worked on it for four long years, during which time I gathered materials and prepared and published two additional studies on a similar topic.

The work took so long because I was looking for more than just practical solutions to existing safety issues in schools and other educational institutions. The main objective was to build a system out of them—a unified mechanism where everything is interconnected, where there are no superfluous details, and  each element complements and reinforces the others, where technology enhances and expands human capabilities rather than replacing them. 

The primary condition for working on the system project presented in this article—designed to ensure comprehensive security for educational facilities against criminal, terrorist, and other threats—was that a school must remain a school, not turn into a prison or a military base. It was difficult, but I managed to find such solutions.

The article begins with an analysis of the current situation, the results of conducted research, and an assessment of existing and potential threats. Subsequently, based on effective global practices for preventing and countering such threats, as well as public demand, I outlined my practical solutions, each of which is aimed at addressing specific vulnerabilities in the existing system for organizing security and safety at educational institutions, as identified during the study of actual crimes.

The project includes: administrative and legal measures, proposals for changes and additions to the system of technical fortification and security of educational institutions, the organization of security, monitoring, and response to direct threats, the use of technical security and access control measures, as well as many other issues and areas. 

In conclusion, I presented the results of a hypothetical experiment on the application of all proposed solutions, using the example of a real attack on an educational facility.

I am fully aware that the framework I propose has not yet been tested in practice, and it is premature to speak of its effectiveness; many of the proposals outlined in it are controversial. However, I believe I have achieved the main goal: to create a format, a basic foundation that can be used as a starting point to work on, improve, make changes and additions to, enhance capabilities, and increase effectiveness. To strive for excellence and create a safe space for our children.

As always, I welcome your reviews, feedback, comments, and constructive criticism. 

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Announcement: Ensuring Comprehensive Safety in Schools and Other Educational Institutions: From Problem Analysis to Practical Solutions.

 

Note: it should be borne in mind that the author lives and works in Russia, so in this article, he considers the situation on the example of his country. Measures to ensure the safety of schools, other educational institutions and places with a mass stay of children that he proposes are developed by him for use in Russia, taking into account the existing law enforcement system and the situation there.

I am pleased to announce that I have finally completed the main part of my work on the article «Ensuring Comprehensive Safety in Schools, Other Educational Institutions, and Facilities and Locations Frequented by Large Numbers of Children Against Threats of a Criminal, Terrorist, and Other Nature».

All that remains are purely technical details: combining the separate sections into a single whole, making corrections, formatting it, and preparing it for publication on the portal’s main website. There is no exact date yet, but tentatively - late May to early June of this year.

This article is of a practical nature. I am not interested in discussing the problem or stirring up the atmosphere around it—crime statistics in schools, kindergartens, colleges, and universities do that much better. I am also not interested in the motives of criminals. I do not believe, nor do I even entertain the thought, that the mass murder of innocent people could have any justification whatsoever.

My interest lies in finding answers to other questions: can this be stopped? And if so, how exactly can it be done?

I began searching for answers to these questions back in 2018, when I was working on my first article about safety in schools and other educational institutions. I started that work almost immediately after the tragedy at the Kerch Polytechnic College, where 20 people were killed and another 67 were injured.

At the time, as I studied the timeline of that tragedy, I tried to understand: why was it so easy for the perpetrator to commit such a monstrous crime?

Here’s what I saw. A man armed with a gun, a large amount of ammunition, and homemade explosive devices leaves his home, walks to a public transportation stop, gets on a bus, rides to the right stop, walks to the college building, goes inside, finds an open, isolated room, prepares his weapon, arranges the ammunition for quick reloading, and sets the timers on the bombs. Then he goes out, heads to the emergency exit, tries to block it, walks toward the cafeteria, sets up an explosive device, goes back, grabs his weapon, and starts killing.

An explosion, panic. The killer moves calmly and, most importantly, unhindered through the college hallways, shooting at anyone who crosses his path or comes into view. He throws homemade grenades. Then he goes to the library, where he commits suicide.

It was all over before the first police car even arrived on the scene. No one stopped the criminal. No one stopped him. He killed himself when he considered his bloody mission accomplished. From start to finish, he had the situation completely under control.

 

It would be one thing if this were the first tragedy of its kind in Russia. But before this, there were Beslan, Moscow, Ivanteevka, Perm, Ulan-Ude, Shadrinsk, Sterlitamak, and Barabinsk. Wasn’t that enough to realize that the threat is real, and that a tragedy on the scale of the Kerch College attack is only a matter of time?

However, even this crime did not serve as a catalyst for recognizing the level of the threat and revising the entire security system. As always, everything was limited to talk and formal measures that had no real impact on the situation. Next came Kazan, Perm, Izhevsk, Bryansk—and these are only the largest crimes in terms of the number of victims. There were others, and quite a few of them.

The situation in other countries also clearly shows that there is no basis for optimistic forecasts. Statistics (link) clearly demonstrate a trend toward an increase in the number of similar crimes worldwide. The year 2025 set a kind of anti-record for their number. However, the first five months of 2026 clearly indicate that this record will be broken in the very near future.

All of this clearly demonstrates the complete vulnerability of schools and other educational institutions to criminals and terrorists. Every time there is another attack, meetings and discussions begin, task forces and commissions convene, plans and decisions are formulated, and high-profile statements are made to the media. However, very little time passes before new attacks occur and new victims emerge.

At the same time, even the simplest analysis of the chronology of these events shows that in most cases, the criminals exploited the same vulnerabilities that have long been known to everyone.

I was unable to get started right away. Difficulties arose, forcing me to postpone the work for nearly two years.

In the first area of research (the security situation at educational institutions in Russia and around the world), I encountered a lack of statistical data on crimes in this category that had been collected and systematized in a single source. I had to spend a tremendous amount of time and effort gathering information from dozens of different sources and cross-checking it.

Without these statistics, it is impossible to:

- gain an objective picture of what is happening;

- conduct a thorough (comparative and cross-sectional) analysis of the data;

- track developments over time;

- assess the true scale of the threat;

- explain ongoing criminological processes and identify the factors influencing them;

- predict how events will unfold.

Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding regarding the direction and specific characteristics of the threat’s development, which makes it extremely difficult to devise effective countermeasures. We see the result now, when, following yet another mass shooting or terrorist attack at an educational institution, experts, political analysts, law enforcement officials, educators, and journalists ask themselves: «Why didn’t the measures developed and implemented as part of the security strategy work?»

The answer is simple: they were developed based on incomplete data. And in many cases, this data was not only incomplete but also unreliable.

I myself have often come across statistics in media reports that are far removed from reality. For example, when commenting on yet another mass shooting at a school or university, the author would back up the article with general statistics on incidents at educational institutions—even though most of these incidents were not even indirectly related to mass shootings or terrorism. For the most part, these are general criminal offenses: committed due to personal animosity, or for financial gain (robberies, muggings, extortion), often out of hooliganism or even unintentionally.

Therefore, it is extremely important not only to know the statistics, but also to understand what lies behind these numbers. Proper data categorization is equally important.

The principles I used during data collection:

All collected cases underwent cross-analysis and comparison of information from various sources.

Preference was given to police press releases, reports, and court transcripts—these contain more facts than speculation.

All incidents were divided into groups and subgroups based on various criminological characteristics. This classification allows us to clearly see the nature of the situation’s development over a specific time period, both in comparison and in terms of trends.

Based on high-quality, systematically organized statistical data, it is possible to create more accurate (than currently available) criminological models and forecasts. Most importantly, these models can be used to develop truly effective measures for preventing and combating threats.

This requires reliable source data—verified, organized, and compiled into a single repository. But such data did not exist.

It became clear that a unified information and reference resource was needed, containing information on crimes in this category and at least a brief (minimal) set of factual data about their perpetrators and circumstances. Realizing this, I set out to create it.

As a format for presenting the data, I chose a format similar to a police incident report: a brief summary of the circumstances containing such information as the date, time, place, method, object, perpetrator, victims, consequences, outcome, and other reliably established facts.

In February 2024, the first edition of the Handbook of Crimes and Terrorist Acts in Schools and Other Educational Institutions was published on the «Public Order and Safety» portal, containing statistical data spanning 24 years (from 2000 through 2023).

The information has since been updated and expanded. The fifth edition is now available for download, containing data spanning 26 years. One of the main objectives has been achieved: an informative, user-friendly, and, most importantly, publicly accessible reference and analytical tool has been created for researchers and specialists in school safety.

For me, the main outcome of working on the handbook was that I was finally able to see a fairly objective picture regarding the first area of research. And as it turned out, this picture is far from optimistic. I won’t delve too deeply into the details—you can review the statistics and analytics for yourselves. The most important thing is that the year and a half spent on this was not wasted.

While studying materials on crimes in educational institutions, I noticed that experts often use the term «safety level» in their assessments, adding various adjectives to it: high, low, satisfactory, unsatisfactory, adequate, minimal, and so on. This raised a question for me: what exactly do they mean by this concept, and how do they define it?

After reviewing the information available in open sources, I have concluded that there is currently no unified (or even widely used) system in our country for assessing the safety levels of educational institutions based on formal criteria. Most reports containing such assessments are based on the personal opinions of the experts who compiled them.

An analysis of international experience also revealed nothing concrete—the situation there appears to be similar.

This situation struck me as, to put it mildly, strange. It is clear that there is a need for such a tool. Although I am not a proponent of total standardization in safety matters, I consider this area an exception. Since there was no evaluation system that could objectively calculate the safety level of an educational facility based on formal criteria (with minimal human influence), and I needed such a tool for my work, I decided to create it myself.

The result is a table in which evaluations are based on 64 criteria covering:

- characteristics of the educational facility’s grounds and its location;

- characteristics of buildings and structures;

- the presence of physical security and its features;

- technical security measures and their capabilities;

- additional active and passive security measures.

Each item, if present and operational, is assigned a number of points, which are then totaled. A final score is calculated. In addition to the total score, there are factors that negatively impact the final score.

Once completed, the table clearly shows:

- the level of security at the educational institution;

- its capabilities;

and most importantly—obvious shortcomings and vulnerabilities in the security system.

Based on the resulting assessment, measures and costs can be planned to improve the facility’s security level. Using annual data on such assessments of one or more facilities, it is easy to conduct comparative and dynamic analyses, clearly assessing the situation in a specific school, city, region, or even country over a given time period. You can compare both overall assessments and individual indicators or sections.

The result is a convenient and, most importantly, objective tool for monitoring the situation, where even a one-point drop in the rating compared to the previous period immediately indicates that the situation is deteriorating and action must be taken.

Even while collecting data for the handbook and developing the assessment table, I increasingly came to the conclusion that the model of a comprehensive security system for educational institutions that I had previously developed and outlined in my first article was ineffective and unpromising.

Solving the problem would require a completely different approach.

I began work on this at the end of 2023. In May 2026, I finally managed to complete it (though I assume it is not yet final).

In my new development, I was guided by public demand, which is as follows: schools, other educational institutions (including preschools), as well as facilities where large numbers of children gather, must be reliably protected from criminal, terrorist, and other threats, but at the same time, they must not be turned into something resembling a prison or a military base.

Is this realistic? I believe it is.

What needs to be done to achieve this, why, and exactly how—I will address these questions in the main article.

The publication is scheduled for late May to early June of this year on the «Public Order and Safety» portal.

Author – Roman Grishin.

Publication format and copyright protection

In a previous publication, we provided a list of thematic sections of the project's web site (and eventually a forum). The sections are ready and contain promising areas for research, articles, reviews, and other materials. Their general list with links you can see in the Research section of the main site. Manuscript submissions for publication are now open, and you can send your work to the editorial board.

Despite the fact that the main thing for us is the content and not the form, but for the convenience of the editors, participants and readers, authors should adhere to a certain structure of presentation of the material. For this purpose, we have developed general requirements for the format of publications, which all materials sent to the editors must comply with. In addition, we have established a list of thematic restrictions, issues, discussion of which is not allowed within the project.

We clarify that at the moment, this is a preliminary format, in the process of development of the project, it will be finalized and brought to a single template. Which will not be difficult either to understand or to execute, we will try to make it as simple and convenient as possible for both authors and readers.

The project is an open and noncommercial electronic platform, it does not have the status of a legal entity and is not a mass media, so in case of disputes it will not be able to stand on the author's side to protect copyrights of his/her publication. Registration of copyright with a notary or in specialized organizations, though the procedure is reliable, but costs a lot of money, which not everyone has. In this regard, we have developed several recommendations, following which will help authors to protect their intellectual property rights without incurring large financial expenses.  

You can read about all this in more detail in the Contacts section of the main project website. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please send us a private message, an e-mail or a comment on the article.

Once again, we reiterate that the receipt of materials for publication is open, we are waiting for your articles.

Regards.

Project Editorial Board.

#rules #publication #article #research #author

Thematic sections of the site and forum

As it was said before, the main direction of the Project is forming of a community of people professionally involved or interested in: fighting crime, terrorism, increase of efficiency of law enforcement agencies. And also to create an electronic platform, where participants could put their articles, reviews, critiques, scientific works and other materials. In addition, provide opportunities to organize and participate in discussions, collaborative projects, substantive discussions, debates, brainstorming sessions, etc.

All publications and discussions will be divided into thematic areas; at present (there may be more in the future) there are seven:

1. Issues of security of citizens against crimes and terrorist acts, on the streets and in other public places.

2. Issues related to organization of police and other law enforcement bodies' activities during pandemic (of global and local character) dangerous viral infections and in cases (under threats) of terrorist acts involving bacteriological weapons.

3. Issues of security of educational institutions and other places with mass stay of children from threats of criminal, terrorist and other nature.

4. General issues of forecasting, prevention and suppression of criminal and terrorist threats at an early stage.

5. Questions of security in different kinds of transport, prevention of emergency situations, prevention and suppression of crimes and terrorist acts committed by means of transport.

6. Prospects for the development of police services and other law enforcement agencies in the near future, management decisions aimed at effective reform of the law enforcement system, taking into account modern requirements.

7. Criminal and terrorist threats in the 21st century, probable directions of their development in the coming decades, forecasts of new types and methods of committing crimes and terrorist acts.

Again, this is a preliminary list of thematic directions which will be published in the homonymous sections of the project site and discussed at the forum, but it's not final. We will be glad to your suggestions and additions to this list.

At this we remind you that the Public Order and Safety project is planned as a highly specialized professional community. In this regard, suggestions related to the discussion of topics such as politics, economics, religion, conspiracy, interstate and international relations will not be considered. Questions about salaries, service in police services and units, pension security, legal and social protection of law-enforcement officers are also not considered. There are many other resources on the Internet to discuss such issues. 

In future publications we will look at the above thematic sections in more detail, and discuss such an important topic for the project participants as copyright protection of their publications. 

Regards.

Project Editorial Board.

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