Safety in Schools and Other Educational Institutions: An Overview of the Current Global Situation, First Half of 2026.

 
The first half of 2026 has come to a close, so it’s time to take stock and draw some preliminary conclusions. The first conclusion is that my forecast, made based on the results of 2025 and published in an article, did not come true. At that time, I predicted that in 2026 there would be a 25–30% decrease in the number of crimes committed, based on key indicators. I reached this conclusion by comparing the sharp spike in crime rates in 2025 with a similar spike in 2014, after which the figures for the following several years were even slightly below average. Based on this comparison, I concluded that in 2014 and 2025, there was a sort of «release of accumulated excess pressure», followed by several years of relative «calm» and then another rise to a new record high. The forecast did not materialize.

The situation in the first half of 2026 became much more complicated, with growth across virtually all indicators.

 

Statistics for the first 6 months, a brief overview:

In total, 72 serious and particularly serious crimes were committed in schools and other educational institutions, which is 35.8% more than during the same period last year (hereinafter referred to as «s.p.l.y.») - 53.

There were 43 crimes involving mass murder and acts of terrorism; during the same period last year, there were 22 such crimes, representing an increase of nearly double, or 95.4%. Below are the specific figures for this category of crimes.

The proportion of crimes committed with firearms decreased slightly to 41.8% (s.p.l.y. - 45.5%), however, the proportion of crimes committed using chemical poisons rose significantly to 11.6% (s.p.l.y. - 4.5%), incendiary devices and mixtures to 9.3% (s.p.l.y. - 4.5%), and explosive devices 4.6% (s.p.l.y. - 0%). The proportion of attacks committed by groups rose slightly to 9.3% (s.p.l.y. - 9.1%), as did that of terrorist attacks 2.3%( s.p.l.y. - 0%).

The percentage of crimes in which vehicles were used as weapons decreased significantly to 0% (s.p.l.y. - 9.1%), and the percentage of crimes in which the perpetrators managed to flee the scene was halved to 18.6% (s.p.l.y. - 36.3%).

Total number of victims (under Section 2, «Crimes with characteristics of mass murders and terrorist acts2): 218 (s.p.l.y. - 143), of whom:

- 46 were killed (s.p.l.y. - 39);

- 172 were injured (s.p.l.y. - 104).

Despite the increase in these figures, the public danger coefficient for attacks in the first half of 2026 decreased to 3.06; in the same period of 2025, it was 4.1.

 

Geography of Crime:

There have been sharp, negative changes in two countries: Turkey and the Philippines.

In Turkey, the situation deteriorated sharply in the spring. The first attack took place on March 2 at a school in Istanbul; a month and a half later, two attacks occurred one day apart: on April 14 in Siverek and the following day in Kahramanmaraş, resulting in 38 victims—10 dead and 28 wounded. In terms of scale, these crimes exceeded the figures for the previous 25 years. Prior to this, mass killings at educational institutions in Turkey had occurred twice: 

- November 22, 2005, in Nusaybin: an attack on a school, 5 victims (1 killed, 4 injured);

- April 5, 2018, in Ankara: an attack on a university, 7 victims (4 killed, 3 injured).

 

In the Philippines, events in June sent shockwaves through the country, with three consecutive attacks occurring within one week:

- June 16, 2026, General Trias, Philippines;

- June 19, 2026, Cavite, Philippines (stabbing, 1 injured, male, 18 years old, student);

- June 22, 2026, Tacloban, Philippines;

Two of the incidents showed signs of mass killings. There were 16 victims, including 3 fatalities and 13 injured.

Prior to this, over the past 25 years, there had been only one similar incident in the Philippines, on October 22, 2010, in Zamboanga; however, that was a single external attack on an elementary school carried out by a perpetrator over 50 years old. In 2026, the picture is completely different: one attack was carried out by a group, two were internal (carried out by students at these schools), and one was of a mixed nature; the oldest of the attackers was 18 years old.

It is still difficult to say exactly what caused such drastic changes in the situation, specifically in these two countries, where, until 2026, such crimes were the exception rather than the rule. There are several theories, but none of them is backed by direct evidence; for now, everything remains at the level of speculation, and more definitive conclusions can be drawn at the end of the year.

As for positive developments, the situation in China shows a positive trend. I’m not sure exactly what this is due to, but for the first half of 2026, there is not a single mention of China in open sources in the context of serious and particularly serious crimes committed in educational institutions. This is unusual, as China typically ranks among the top three countries in terms of the number of such attacks. By comparison, last year saw four crimes in China that met the criteria for mass murders and terrorist acts, two of which occurred in the first half of the year.

Otherwise, no other significant changes were recorded on the world map during the first half of 2026. However, the overall trend is that the list of countries where such crimes are committed is growing every year. As of today, based on statistics for the past six months, the geographic distribution of attacks on educational facilities is as follows: the United States, Russia, Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, South Africa, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Thailand, India, the Netherlands, Finland, Uganda, and Lithuania.

I won’t make any predictions for the end of the year, but so far everything indicates that the all-time high set in 2025 will most likely be surpassed this year.

Over the next one and a half to two months, we can expect a lull, as most educational institutions around the world close for summer break. It’s still hard to say what will happen in the fall, when the school year begins. There is a high probability that an already difficult situation could become even more complicated due to the growing activity of online extremist communities and movements, which have shifted to more aggressive tactics and ideologies and have begun actively promoting ideas of misanthropy - but that is a topic for a separate discussion. 

Author – Roman Grishin.

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